The numbers

Charlie Cook has had some really interesting analysis of the polling data lately. And I can't remember which pollster recently pointed out that the tepid "Bush Bounce" (up from 28-30%-range to low- or mid-30's, depending on which poll you look at) is due almost entirely to Republicans who had been inclined to disown him coming back to the fold. In other words, the Indiependents he's lost over the last year are not coming back to him. These are fascinating trends and bode well for November. I have been worried about Democratic ineptitude and entrenched privilege spoiling their chances, but with Hillary Clinton's disavowal of Lieberman and her staged grilling of Rumsfeld, I'm starting to think they are getting the message: anti-war sentiment is the mainstream, especially in the Democratic party.

That just leaves voter fraud.